Re: Annual Per Capita Consumption Seafood

From: Alex Augusto Gonçalve (alaugo@gmail.com)
Date: Tue Sep 02 2008 - 12:42:26 PDT

  • Next message: Peter Howgate: "Re: Annual Per Capita Consumption Seafood"

    Hi Peter,

    Thanks for all information. I just tried and got interesting results.

    Hugs,

    Alex

    -------Original Message-------
     
    From: Peter Howgate
    Date: 9/2/2008 3:31:36 PM
    To: Alex Augusto Gonçalves; Seafood group; Roy Palmer
    Subject: Re: Annual Per Capita Consumption Seafood
     
    The subject of fish consumption has generated some interest on the Listserve
    and I would like to expand on my earlier contribution. During the 1980's and
    1990's I undertook several projects and consultancies for FAO and this
    generated in me at interest in fish as a food commodity and the contribution
    of fish to overall food supplies in different countries. In 1995 I
    participated in an FAO expert working group on contribution of fish to food
    security and I compiled data on fish consumption which at that time were
    available upto 1992 in FAOSTAT. I had my memory of these tables in mind when
    I responded to Alex's original question, but I thought I should bring my
    tables up-to-date in order to comment on the current situation. I attach two
    tables in Microsoft Excel format and readers can manipulate them and plot
    them as they wish. The source is FAOSTAT available at http://faostat.fao
    org/default.aspx. Click Consumption on the top line then Livestock and Fish
    Primary Equivalent to bring up the database. Select the country or group of
    countries; a plus sign after a grouping of countries denoted the summary
    over all countries in the group whereas a > symbol denotes that data for
    individual countries within the group will be shown. Under item select Fish,
    seafood. Under element select units in which you wish to express the later;
    I use kg/capita/yr. Then select the span of years. Click 'show data' to
    display the table. The table can be downloaded and will appear automatically
    in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. I attach 2 tables for 2 country groupings
    to illustrate.
    Table 1 is the data from 1990 to 2003, the latest year shown in the database
     for the OECD countries. I have selected this grouping because it includes
    the economically developed and rich countries. Citizens of these countries
    will have high spending power and access to a wide choice of foods so
    whether they consume fish products or some other alternative food is largely
    a matter of choice and availability and not of necessity. I have shown on
    the bottom line of this table the values for world per capita consumption.
    The FAOSTAT data are rounded to whole numbers, but you can see that my
    estimate for 2003 based on fish production used for human consumption is in
    agreement with the FAOSTAT value. (In 'fish' I include shellfish).
    Notice that over all the OECD countries per capita fish consumption has not
    changed over the 14 year span of this table. I find this constancy
    surprising. Over this period there has been increasing emphasis on the
    health-promoting benefits of fish consumption and generally in countries
    such as those in the OECD there have been official campaigns to promote
    consumption of fishery products. Overall knowledge of these benefits and the
    official campaigns seem to have made little impression on the overall per
    capita consumption of fish in the OECD countries. A consumption of 27 kg/yr
    lightweight equivalent equates to approximately 200 g/week of edible flesh
    assuming an overall yield of 40% from the live weight. The per capita
    consumption includes infants and children so the 200g/week represents more
    than one fish meal/week for adults on average in the OECD countries. This
    overall figure though obscures wide differences between countries. Hungary
    has the lowest consumption of fish and this might be expected bearing in
    mind it is a landlocked country, but Switzerland, also a landlocked country,
    has a much higher consumption. Austria too is a landlocked country and has a
    consumption of 14 units, the same as Germany with access to North Sea and
    with a quite large fishing industry. Iceland has by far the highest fish
    consumption which equates to more than one fish meal/day, but that is an
    exceptional case. Japan is next highest, but in both that country and in
    Iceland consumption has decreased slightly in the period under review.
    Consumption in the UK has increased since 1995, which may be a result of
    official nutritional advice, but this period has also coincided with a
    marked increase in cookery programmes on television many which have promoted
    the culinary delights of fish and shellfish and perhaps have had more
    influence on fish consumption than the official promotions. Browse these
    figures if your country is listed, and try and work out your own
    explanations.
    Table 2 shows food consumption in those countries defined by the United
    Nations as 'Low Income Food Deficient' (LIFD) countries, that is, countries
    with low per capita incomes and inability to grow or import adequate food
    supplies for the population. The list is much longer than that of the OECD
    countries. It includes China and perhaps now with the marked increase in the
    industrialisation of this country it perhaps no longer should is in this
    category, but it is interesting to note the changes in fish consumption
    there. Overall the recorded per capita consumption of fish in the LIFD
    countries is about half of that in the OECD countries, but encouragingly it
    has increased markedly over the period under review. Again, there is a wide
    range of consumption among countries and for some the FAOSTAT data records
    no consumption of fish at all. Many have consumptions less than 5kg/per
    capita/yr, about one meal of fish/month. Small island states - Kiribati is
    an example - not surprisingly have high consumptions. So do African
    countries with access to the sea, for example those on the West coast,
    whereas inland countries with large populations such as Congo DR have low
    consumptions. The table includes a line for developing countries in Africa
    as a group and shows that in this group fish consumption has remained static
    over the period under review. What is striking in this table is the increase
    in consumption in China. I have seen reservations expressed about fishery
    statistics for China and perhaps some of this increase is due to improved
    recording of catchers and harvests.
    It's interesting to make some projections of fish consumption into the
    future. Production from capture fisheries seems to reached a plateau with an
    average catch over the 10 years 1996 to 2005 of 92.9 million tonnes.
    Allowing for the average amount going for nonhuman food of 31.5 million
    tonnes leaves 61 million tonnes as the contribution to fish supplies from
    capture fisheries. Aquaculture production over the same 10-year period has
    increased approximately linearly by 2.5 million tonnes a year. Extrapolating
    these values to 2015 and using the estimates of world population in that
    year the predicted per capita fish consumption in that year is 18.5kg/yr.
    That is, aquaculture production is increasing faster than population growth
    allowing for an increase in global per capita consumption. It is always
    risky to extrapolate outside of the domain of the original and I will leave
    others to argue whether this increase in aquaculture production can be
    maintained. To my mind one thing that is certain is that fish production can
    not increase sufficiently to allow for a global per capita consumption to
    approach that of the OECD countries now.
    Peter Howgate
     


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