Mary Brandt Jensen's response to Ken Sills included the comment that she
is putting together a long range technology plan.
This is one of those "INI" (impossible but necessary but impossible)
tasks we all sometimes face. CD's, in their current form, probably will be
replaced by CD's of a different size (just as floppy disks made the
transition from 8" to 5" to 3"). The new size probably will not run on much
of the current equipment (just as the big floppies don't run on new
machines.).
Unfortunately, I've met no one (especially me) who knows when and how
the CD's will change, or when CD's will be replaced altogether (By on line?
By chips?, etc?) I'm sure of only one thing: Any long range planning based
on current technology must be wrong, because current technology will be
obsolete in the long range. That's definite.
Ms. Brandt further notes that "large CD setups are not cheap or easy to
acquire or run." That makes the problem even more difficult.
So what's a person to do? My first thought is: Do the long range
planning but build in as many "what if's" as you can think of -- especially
"what-if's" regarding hardware and software obsolescence. This is extremely
hard, because it means predicting tomorrow's technology. But what's the
alternative?
Do no planning? That seems wrong. Assume today's technology will be
viable tomorrow? We *know* that's wrong.
My other thought is: Think cheap. Don't do anything expensive that can
be obsolete in three years (I've heard three years is the latest
rule-of-thumb for technological obsolescence -- although even that estimate
may now be obsolete!).
Each organization must decide what it feels is "expensive." For a big,
well-funded organization, perhaps even $50K or more, isn't too much to risk
losing in three years. For a small or less well-funded group, even $5K might
constitute an unaccepable risk.
Ms. Brandt isn't the only one facing the problem: "how to deal with
future obsolescence." We all do. In fact, it may be the most important
question we'll face from now on. So I'd be interested to learn how others
deal with it.
Anyone else?
Rodger Mitchell
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